Attachment #10: The War Itself From Ukraine’s Perspective
Ukrainian defence tactics are proving tenacious. Every Ukranian male between the ages of 18 and 60 has to remain in the country and potentially be conscripted. Things are getting pretty grim in certain cities. For example food and medical supplies have almost run out in the southern city of Kherson. The city has been occupied by Russian forces for about two weeks. Russia is refusing to open evacuation corridors for civilians to get out.
Ukrainian forces, starting on March 22 are now fighting to take back territory, according to a US official. Reports have begun to filter out that Ukraine’s military has begun a counteroffensive. It seems they regained control of Makariv, a town west of the capital. They destroyed a naval ship in the Sea of Azov and struck a Russian resupply convoy in the northeast. They have retaken a Kyiv suburb. Regardless of whether this has been verified, it will prove helpful in the country’s messaging to its citizens (and the world) that it is taking the fight to the foe, and not just hunkering down to play defence. The likely consequence will be a shift in Russian military strategy over the next few weeks.
At least 20,000 foreigners have joined The International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine (ILDU), a foreign legion established in late February shortly after Russia’s invasion began.
One curious suggestion floating around (and described in the March 3 Macleans) is to offer a huge bounty, say $100,000, to each deserting Russian soldier. It is argued that it would be cost effective when you weigh it against the price of supporting a protracted war, or the cost in men and material to remove that soldier from the battlefield in the traditional fashion. It has also been suggested that the western alliance also dangle in front of Russian diplomats, even senior military staff or Kremlin officials in Moscow, maybe even notable journalists or celebrities, a path to citizenship and a stipend to cover living costs.
For them and all the rest, there would be one very important catch. All of these offers would require a recorded video statement explaining their opposition to the war and urging others to join them. If they were shared in the media and online, coming from powerful Russians and lowly conscripts both, it would be almost impossible for the Kremlin to control the narrative domestically. It would be a body blow to morale, and handicap further attempts at disinformation and propaganda.
The Ukrainian will to prevail is strong. This fight is existential for the country. As Andrew Coyne in the Globe & Mail said: “Not only would surrender mean the extinction of their hopes of joining Europe as a free and independent state, it would in many cases mean their literal extinction.” As one general said, “every single town, every single street, every single quarter and every single house would be a Ukrainian fortress and would be hell for the Russian soldiers.”
There is a visceral hate, a sort of “Russophobia” prevalent throughout. Said one lady interviewed. “For the first time in my life, I understood that I’m capable of killing someone.” Guerrilla actions in Nazi-occupied Ukraine during the Second World War were recalled. ”Total resistance…This is our Ukranian trump card, and this is what we can do best in the world” said an aide to the President. “There is no need to organize resistance,“ Zelenskyy has said. “Resistance for Ukrainians is part of their soul.”
A month of war has transformed Ukraine. Four weeks of Russian military attacks on villages, suburbs, and cities have taken an enormous toll. Things like drinking water, food, heat, diapers, medicines are becoming scarce. A few supermarkets are still open; everything else is closed. Shelves are depleted but not empty. Few supplies have arrived since the war began. Except for main roads there is barely any traffic, and few people are on the streets. Gasoline has run out and garages are closed.
Awful stories continue to mount. On March 9, a Russian airstrike devastated a maternity hospital in the besieged port city of Mariupol. In only two weeks, almost as many Russian soldiers have been killed as the Soviet Union lost over a decade in Afghanistan. Over 100 Russian aircraft – fighters, bombers, helicopters and drones – have been downed. While advancing unevenly towards Kharkhiv (which they have now almost wiped off the face of the earth), Kyiv and other cities, Russian forces ‘control’ only thin ribbons of highway. As they flatten smaller Black Sea cities like Melitopol, Mariupol and Kherson, Russia’s combat-capable units are facing heavy attrition.
A humanitarian nightmare is occurring under the gaze of the whole world. Over 4 million people, primarily women, children, and the elderly (freeing the men to fight at home) have fled Ukraine after four weeks, while another 10 million have been displaced from their homes but remain in Ukraine. Over two million have abandoned the capital, Kyiv. In just one week the Russian invasion produced a refugee exodus so large that it matched the number of people who sought refuge in Europe in a whole year during the 2015 migration crisis (many of those also fled Syria, which Russia also bombed).
Aleppo-style attacks will trigger a humanitarian and refugee tsunami so sizeable that it could shake the security of Europe’s nation-states. The European Union has decided to grant temporary protection and residency permits. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, predicted the war could produce up to four million refugees (although it has been estimated that the total could increase to ten million). Poland, a neighbouring Slavic nation where many Ukrainians have settled in recent years, has received the largest single group so far. Many continue moving west to countries like Italy and Germany.
Putin’s offer of refugee escape corridors that lead to Russia is the essence of depravity, not humanitarian in any sense. In addition there are conflicting accounts about people being relocated to Russia and whether they are being moved willingly or being coerced or lied to (apparently some 400,000 people since the start of military action). Ukrainian officials have said that the Russians are taking people’s passports and moving them to “filtration camps” before sending them to various distant, economically depressed ares of Russia. Sounds like they are hostages for future bargaining.
Canada has a deep history with respect to Ukrainian immigrants. The first time hundreds of thousands were settled in Canada was in the late 19th and early 20th century when poverty and violence led millions to move west. This was also the first time Canada officially settled an immigrant group who were not viewed as “white” by the standards of the time. The second wave was when Ukrainians fled the horrors of the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin’s dictatorship in the 1920s and 1930s. Many of those whom fled in these two waves were Jews, escaping antisemitic pogroms. The third wave occurred after the Yalta Conference redrew Europe’s borders in 1945, causing ethnic Ukrainians to be forcibly relocated out of territories that were suddenly part of other countries. Canada now has a Ukranian diaspora that includes 1.4 million, mainly our west.
Drones are making the war in the air quite sophisticated. Ukraine is fighting back with technology to track down invading Russians. Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system is giving Ukrainian forces the edge in winning the drone war as. Aerorozvidka (Aerial Reconnaissance) is being used to attack Russian drones and target Putin’s army of tanks and track down their positions. Drones used in the field are able to use the newly available Starlink to keep connected and provide intelligence as internet and power outages plague Ukraine. Drones can be directed to drop anti-tank munitions.
The concept of insurgency, guerrilla war and a potential airlift for Kyiv. After the possible collapse of the Ukrainian army, what next? This has to be addressed; while fighting valiantly, Russia may prevail. Given its spirit of resistance and the hatred of Russian occupation, a Ukranian insurgency has some possibility of success. But surprising as it seems, an opinion piece in the Globe & Mail by Wesley Wark (who is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation) has suggested we may also need to contemplate a repeat of the Berlin airlift of 1948-1949. To break a Soviet siege without getting into a shootout, unarmed cargo planes can bring supplies to the citizens of Kyiv. On March 11, US intelligence estimated that Kyiv had only10 days to two weeks of supplies remaining. This is being posted on March 24, and that doesn’t yet seem to be true.
Sophisticated counter cyber attacks from Ukraine are having an impact: They are disrupting the Russian internet, rendering inoperable a number of key government websites, including those belonging to the Kremlin and the country’s censorship operation. A warning has been issued by Ukraine that online forums and chat apps – including WhatsApp, Viger, Telegram and Facebook – have been “flooded with enemy agents” writing in Russian; many have joined the platforms just recently.
The state-backed broadcasters Russia Today and Sputnik News have been pulled from channel lineups in Australia, Canada and the European Union. Facebook parent Meta will no longer allow Russian state media to purchase ads or monetize content on the company’s platforms. NetBlocks, an internet monitoring organization, has been tracking the Russians.
The risk of an accident with nuclear power facilities. This is a separate type of risk. Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors at four plants around the country. Rafael Grossi of the International Energy Agency noted that this war is “the first time a military conflict is happening amid the facilities of a large, established nuclear power program. When there is a conflict ongoing, there is always, of course, a risk of attack or the possibility of an accidental hit.”
The reality is that the large Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant near the City of Enerhodar (which provides 25% of Ukraine’s power generation, is the largest nuclear plant in Europe and was built by the Soviet Union) has been hit with rocket fire. No damage was incurred to the nuclear facility itself, which is now under Russian control, but there is real concern that the highly trained operators of the plant are under extreme pressure. Their families are in a war zone, they are working long hours in tense conditions – altogether not a safe scenario.
Russia had earlier on in the war seized control of the infamous and now decommissioned Chernobyl power plant. This plant is in an “excluded zone” north of Kyiv and is on the invasion path for Russian soldiers flowing south from Belarus. There is a staff of 200 or so who were on duty at the time of the invasion. 64 of the workers were finally rotated out after more than three weeks without being able to leave the plant. There are serious worries in the nuclear community about the long-term fate of the facility (which is still staffed by several thousand workers who oversee the plant and its fuel and waste storage.)
Attachment #11: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – an Unlikely Heroic Symbol
Zelenskyy is an unlikely heroic symbol. Nobody is laughing much now as he has become a symbol of Ukranian resistance and a surprising worthy rival of Putin. He is broadcasting defiant videos while Russian troops close in and missiles smash the capital city of Kyiv. His answer early on in the war to a question of his intentions has become a legend in the country. Vowing to stay and fight he told the world “I need ammunition, not a ride”. His response has been flashed around the world.
His 13.5 million-strong (and rising) Instagram following is the fifth-biggest of any world leader (the top four are the heads of India, Indonesia, Brazil and Americas). Zelenskyy posts dozens of tweets most days, in Ukrainian and English, tagging other national leaders and getting retweets from their followers. One of his Instagram videos received three million views in an hour, when he declared that “We will protect our country. Our weapon is truth. And the truth is that it is our land. Our Country. Our children. And we will protect it.”
His unlikely background as a comedian (and lawyer) is in sharp contrast to his leadership now. In an art mimicking reality he played a slapstick TV role as a high school teacher who suddenly becomes President of Ukraine – and then he decides to run for the job! He got it with 73% of the vote over incumbent Ihor Poroshenko. As he hailed from the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine (and ironically speaks Russian as his first language), there were suspicions of him at first. Unfounded. In his last-ditch plea ahead of Putin’s declaration of war, Zelenskyy said: “When you attack us, you will see our faces, not our backs.”
In moments of great crisis people look for leaders to speak for them; Ukrainians feel he is saying what they want to hear. He also is indicating that he is willing to talk.