Attachment #19: The Response From International Institutions
The European Union (EU) will serve a stronger role in the future. The EU is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe. An internal single market has been established through a standardized system of laws that apply in all member states in those matters, and only those matters, where the states have agreed to act as one. It was born from the idea that economic integration could stop war, but here it finds itself promising to pay for arms sent to Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made an appeal to the European Parliament “to be an equal member of Europe.”
Ukraine isnot currently recognized as an official candidate for EUmembership, though it’s been part of an association agreement with the EU (in which both parties agreed to align their economies in certain areas and deepen political ties) since 2017.
NATO will be strengthened, ironically for Putin, by his actions: NATO wasestablished in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II when Communist movements supported by the Soviet Union posed a serious threat to democratically elected governments all over a devastated Europe. A cornerstone of NATO is Article 5 which states that an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members. Despite its importance, NATO has only invoked Article 5 once in its history (in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001).
Deep in the fabric of NATO strategic thinking there were very few who thought that Russia would launch this kind of all-out assault on Ukraine. By expanding into eastern Europe over the last 30 years, they correctly calculated that Russia would be a threat. NATO has added new members eight times since its foundation in 1949 with a current total of 30 members.
Twelve countries took part in the founding of NATO, with Canada and the US being two of them. In 1997, three former Warsaw Pact countries, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, were invited to join NATO. Seven countries joined in the fifth enlargement in 2004 (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia). The Warsaw Pact was established in 1955 as a balance of power or counterweight to NATO; it disbanded in 1991.
Putin’s preoccupation with forestalling further enlargement of NATO – one motive behind his actions – is another element of his conservative vision that harks back decades.
NATO currently has around 40,000 troops from several nations under its command, a number almost ten-fold higher than it was a few months ago.The alliance also has 140 warships at sea and 130 aircraft on high alert.
There is talk that NATO may take up Poland’s proposal to create an international peacekeeping force for Ukraine, an idea US officials cast doubt on.
The United Nations – broadly supported Russian rebuke; future reforms possible in dealing with such situations. This global body was created precisely, in the words of the UN Charter preamble, to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war”. Unfortunately the key intergovernmental chamber of the UN, its 15-member Security Council, has, in the words of Jennifer Welsh, the director of the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies, “woefully fallen short of the two goals set for it by the founders of the organization: to manage great power rivalry and to negotiate collective action to meet international security challenges.”
But there is some potential for action. Responding to the predictable veto by Russia of a Security Council resolution on Ukraine, 11 Security Council members voted March 7 (under a seldom used United for Peace procedure) to call for an Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly. The result of the vote was a powerful diplomatic rebuke of Putin’s actions: 141 states supported an Assembly resolution deploring “the aggression of the Russian Federation,” demanding that Russia “completely and unconditionally withdraw” its forces from Ukraine and to effectively reverse its recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk.
While it’s non-binding and symbolic, but as Welsh said “words are not meaningless in international politics, particularly when considering who uttered them.” Those voting in favour represented all parts of the world, including close Russian allies such as Serbia and Brazil, and powerful countries in Africa such as Kenya, Nigeria and Egypt. The five states voting against were in a small club, Russia, Syria, North Korea, Belarus and Iritrea. The abstentions were significant: India, Pakistan, South Africa and China.
Can the UN do more? As Welsh said “It can mandate a commission of inquiry into potential atrocity crimes committed in Ukraine.” It could also “intensify efforts to rethink the global architecture we have to manage international security.” She added that “coming out of this crisis, diplomats could resume deliberations on reforming both the membership of the Security Council and its working procedures – including the veto power. Other options include new institutional balance between the Security Council and other intergovernmental bodies.”
The UN’s Security Council is dysfunctional, as Russia has veto powers so the Council can’t condemn the war. However the General Assembly has powers. It will intensify efforts to rethink the global architecture it has to manage international security. Further, there is a suggestion that the General Assembly establish an authorized force wearing blue helmets and drawn from around the world to allow civilians to move to safety and permit humanitarian aid to flow.
The G7 (or Group of Seven). The forum originated in 1975 that brought together representatives of six governments: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US (leading to the name Group of Six or G6). The summit came to be known as the Group of Seven in 1976 with the addition of Canada. Russia was added to the political forum from 1997, when it became known as the G8.
In March 2014 Russia was suspended indefinitely following the annexation of Crimea, whereupon the political forum name reverted to G7. The G7 is not based on a treaty and has no permanent secretariat or office; its presidency rotates annually among the member states, with the presiding state setting the group’s priorities, and hosting and organizing its summit. While lacking a legal or institutional basis, the G7 is considered to wield significant international influence.
The Group of Twenty (G20): President Biden has said that Russia should be expelled from the Group. There are 20 members in the group: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Spain, the United Nations, the World Bank, the African Union, and other organizations are permanent guest invitees. It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development. It accounts for around 90% of gross world product (GWP), 75–80% of international trade and two-thirds of the global population.
The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). This British-led coalition of ten northern European countries. This was established in 2012. It’s evolving into a first responder to Russian aggression.
The Council of Europe. A human rights organization founded in 1949 and consisting of more than 45 member states, expelled Russia on March 16.
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the past this crude oil cartel has remained neutral even amid war between its members – Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, and Iraq and Kuwait in 1990-91. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are unhappy with American policy in the Middle East, and are not listening to Biden’s requests. The secretary-general of OPEC has made it plain that Russia would not be kicked out of the OPEC+ arrangements with non-members over its invasion of Russia.
The Eastern Partnership (EaP). A joint initiative of the European External Action Service of the EU together with the EU, its member states, and six European partners governing the EU’s relationship with the post-Soviet states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldavia, and Ukraine. This was a program ro foster prosperity in these countries and integrate them into the EU economy. Russia views the plan as hostile to their country’s interests.
Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU). A Moscow dominated trading bloc that is widely considered an attempt by Putin to rebuild something like the USSR. All five current member states were Soviet republics until 1991. It’s an economic union of these post-Soviet states located in Eastern Europe, Western Asia and Central Asia, i.e. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia. It came into force in 2014 and 2015.
Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force (REPO). This includes Australia, Canada, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the US. REPO issued a joint statement committing to “prioritizing our resources and working together to take all available legal steps to find, restrain, freeze, seize, and, where appropriate, confiscate or forfeit the assets of those individuals and entities that have been sanctioned in connection with Russia’s premeditated, unjust, and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the continuing aggression of the Russian regime.”