The USA and Trump, 2025: Weaker, Less Respected and Alone

“How can so many Americans be so gullible?” is the question all of my friends constantly ask. When a respectable newspaper writes an editorial (March 10, Globe & Mail) that goes like this: “Faced with a President who changes his mind constantly, Canada must assume that his word is worthless and his country is an unreliable partner.” That stands repeating, “CANADA MUST ASSUME THAT HIS WORD IS USELESS AND HIS COUNTRY IS AN UNRELIABLE PARTNER”.

Or put another way: the US is not the country it was a few months ago.

OK, I succumb. I didn’t want write another blog about Trump. He has become despotic in a way that is unlike any man in my own personal history.

But enough’s enough. I am angry, and anger is exhausting. This man is odious, so the blog will offer two themes. One, I’ll rant about him (and yes, of course the current US political environment) to get it out of my system – again (see Attachment #1 for links to my other Trump/US blogs; see: https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/) – but more than just my emotional side, as I’ll use evidence to support my emotions.

And then I’ll suggest how Canada should handle Trump and the US.

Re Trump’s 99 minute March 4 address to Congress – this is the kind of guy we are dealing with:
One way to start is to give you my takeaway after listening to Trump’s very long 99 minute address to Congress on March 4, 2025. It reflects a classic profile of the man:
His lies: He continues to lie in big chunks; the CNN fact check guy counted 14 major lies. (I’ve described six of them in Attachment #2; see: https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/. One of them is on tariffs. Another is on US debt, which should be frightening to all MAGA people.) The magic of the big lie, is tell a lie so big that people will not believe that you would deceive them on such a scale. Hitler explained this in Mein Kampf back in 1925.

His repetitions: He traffics in repetition, in repetition, in repetition. This is so important; his repetition of untruths seem to be taken by many as truths eventually – if you hear something so many times, well perhaps it’s what is. He’s doing that dangerously so, in his characterizations of Canada.

Anything for recognition is good: There is also the concept that’s oft stated which is the idea that absolutely anything to get publicity or recognition is good when you are running for or involved with a public office. People won’t remember or care WHY it is good, but only remember your name which is all you want. The Irish poet Brendan Behan had such a great quote on this, “There is no such thing as bad publicity, except your own obit.”

The question of trust: Building on the concept of truth is the issue of trust. It has been obvious to most that one does not use that word to describe Trump. So ANY deal that he’s behind, pushing, proposing has lost credibility as soon as the idea comes out of his mouth. I submit that Trump has no believability; the world (non MAGA) can’t trust him.

Hyperbole: He traffics in hyperbole.

His attitude that there is always a winner and a loser: It seems that everything is a transaction, with always a “winner” and a “loser”, and never both augmenting each other to end up winners. He despises deals from which both parties walk away happy. (Attachment #3: “Trump’s Inadequate Negotiating Skills” gets into this further. See: https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/)

Divisive: His was a divisive speech, and so he continues to divide America.

Denigration and mocking: He mocks and denigrates his enemies, the Democrats generally, and specific individuals. He’s harsh on Joe Biden (mentioning him 5 times, “the worst president in American history, ever”). He called Senator Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas”. This was a big deal. It’s crude enough to use slurs and insults at party rallies, as Trump has done for years. But to do it from the presidency, while performing one of the solemn Constitutional duties of office, is something we genuinely “have never seen before.”

He is a classic bully, but bullies are predictable – we’ve all met them back in high school.

Empathy: Closely related to the above is Trump lacking an empathetic approach to life. This is simply the adult version of the golden rule drilled into children. “Do unto others as you would like them to do unto you.” Hannah Arendt, the Jewish philosopher, wrote that “The death of human empathy is one of the earliest and most telling signs of a culture about to fall into barbarism.”

Sleazy: The word “sleazy” keeps popping into my head when I see him perform; it’s appropriate to his manner and behaviour. People just know sleaze when they see it.

His focus on power: He disdains the weak and small; he admires the strong and large; he admires power. One assessment of Trump was made recently by the American journalist and author David Shribman. He wrote “maybe it’s not about fentanyl and migrants after all. Maybe it’s really about power. The power to unsettle others. The power to bend people to his will. The power, in short, to exercise power. And to enjoy employing it.”

Uncertainty as a disrupter: He uses every tool he can, no holds barred, with no restraints. In this regard he uses uncertainty as a disrupter. What is happening to Canada, other countries and to selected citizens in the US who are in Trump’s target range, is the drama of rampant uncertainty, and our brains are not wired for uncertainty. It makes us fearful and anxious.

Loaded words: He used loaded words in this speech, e.g. “radical left lunatics”, “rapists”. “child predators who are allowed to enter our country”. In a rally last year, Trump cast migrants as threats to American citizens. He then said ”I don’t know if you call them ‘people,’ in some cases,’ he said. “They’re not people, in my opinion.” He later referred to them as “animals.” He praised the people serving sentences in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, and called them “hostages”. He described the jurist who issued a court order to stop the deportation of migrants as a “Radical Left Lunatic of a Judge”. Timothy Snyder, a respected author and professor of history at Yale, has cautioned us in his book “On Tyranny” to “listen for dangerous words”; Trump traffics in them.

False sincerity: He uses false sincerity; he’s doesn’t even know how gauche he is, which is really gauche.

Weaponizing religion: He weaponizes religion (why not use everything he can). One grating example he continues to use is the line regarding the recent assassin attempt missing him, thus “I believe that my life was saved that day in Butler for a very good reason. I was saved by God to Make America Great Again”.

False smile; humourless: While he rarely smiles, when it appears, it is false, unnatural. Along with this is his seemingly incapacity for normal humour.

Enablers enabled: He’s surrounded by a structure of enablement, other like-minded people. The fawning and obeisance of the Republican representatives in the chamber as he entered and departed and during the speech was gag-worthy. Such toadying, such servility, such sycophancy.

Enormous ego: You had better flatter his ego and bear gifts (so many examples).

Self aggrandizement: At EVERY opportunity. Right at the beginning of his address he said: “It has been stated by many that the first month of our presidency, it’s our presidency, is the most successful in the history of our nation. By many. And what makes it even more impressive, is that you know who number two is? George Washington. How about that? I don’t know about that list but we’ll take it.“ Trump compared to Washington: true vanity – and fantasy!

Theatrics: He uses theatrics (somewhat effectively, I might add) e.g. staged vignettes during the speech of people who have behaved in enlightened or noble aways or who had family killed in horrible ways. But they also have some irony connected to them. As humorist Garrison Keillor wrote in his March 14 blog “To use part of the State of the Union speech to honor a boy cured of cancer even while pediatric cancer research funding is so low is not for the faint of heart. You and I would be hard put to do it. Members of Congress are not fools, they have assistants who read to them, and half of the Members stood and applauded when he denounced pediatric cancer without calling for funding to be restored. Great operas have been written featuring treachery on this scale.” Keillor is known for his humour, although not while writing about Trump.

The MAGA culture: Trump is a product of certain (in my value judgement) irritating ways that some Americans have: self aggrandizement; using “USA, USA, USA” jingoist chants reminiscent of the “ugly American” we used to complain about when travelling, who were boorish and often loud, who associated only with other Americans and refused anything to do with learning about foreign culture or language. It’s a national theme that many countries have, to support their own culture and way of life, but the US overdoes it, and Trump’s MAGA exemplifies this.
The phrase “The Ugly American” by the way, was a play on a novel written in 1955 by Graham Greene entitled “The Quiet American” which was about the decline of French colonial Vietnam and growing American involvement. Greene was a foreign correspondent and was unimpressed by the Americans he had met, finding them blinded by belief in American “exceptionalism” (a word I am beginning to detest).

Regarding the lies in his speech; I’ll deal with six of them, for they’re important, but to keep this brief as I said I have captured them in Attachment #2 (https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/)

Ten concerning areas regarding Trump (and the US)
Before I get to the negative outcomes of Trump’s current actions and how Canada should respond, I want to comment on ten concerning areas re Trump (and the US), in addition to those his speech to Congress I have highlighted.

1. Regarding Trump’s dismissal of Canada as a failed state and his threat of economic annexation, plus of course his across-the-board tariffs. In his world view, Canada has survived only because it has been propped up and protected by the US and would be better off becoming the 51st state. And that Canada also does not really exist. He is preoccupied with punitive tariffs. “We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada,” Trump raged on social media in early February. “Why? There is no reason. We don’t need anything they have.” Trump’s claim that the US subsidizes Canada on trade is nonsense. For one, the 2024 US–Canada trade deficit was $63 billion (US), not hundreds of billions.

Regardless, a trade deficit isn’t a subsidy. It’s an economic transaction – and a tax.
Trump is imposing an enormous tax hike on all Americans in order to fund massive tax breaks for the wealthy. Tariffs are not a fleeting tactic. They are meant to rewire US finances, permanently.

While it is generally agreed that tariffs will damage the US economy, the impact on Canada could be catastrophic. Exports account for one third of Canadian GDP, with 77% of our exports going to the US. More than a fifth of our gross domestic product is tied to trade with the US. Trump’s tariffs will result in huge job losses, business failures and significant pressures on government budgets.

It’s understandable that Canadians have responded with anger and dismay. We thought we had a great friendship; friends don’t impose punishing tariffs to bring the other to bent knee. (Trump has never been a Canada fan; in 2018, he became the first US president since 1977 not to visit Canada in his first year in office. He continued to mock Trudeau, regularly calling him “Governor”, and Canada “a 51st state”.)

Trump is obsessed with control so it makes sense that he is focussed with any policy or strategic goal essential to US security, well-being, and supremacy (from defence spending to trade to border security and beyond), and he’s willing to torch relationships, alliances, norms, and anything else that gets in the way of his designs.

One practical example of this is that the Canadian federal government recently updated its travel advisory when Canadians cross the border. The government warned that travellers should expect to be heavily questioned and may have their electronic devices searched. A B.C.-based immigration lawyer suggested that border agents aren’t just looking for evidence of a crime, but whether the traveller aligns with the US administration and its policies. This is Orwell’s dystopian “1984″ all over again!

2. Regarding Trump’s lie that Canada attacked the US first by sending masses of fentanyl across the border: Opioids, including fentanyl, are a predominantly American problem. They have the highest rate of opioid deaths in the world (just read the book Empire of Pain by Patrick Keele). When Trump claims that fentanyl is “pouring in” from Canada, he is not telling the truth. The total amount smuggled in in 2024 would fit in one suitcase and is .2% of the total. The real problem at the border, as Canada has been politely telling the US, is the illegal smuggling of American guns into Canada.

Portraying Canada as America’s fentanyl enemy is a conspiracy theory, with no basis, but with firm traction in the need to blame someone else for what Americans have done themselves. The fentanyl propaganda is designed to prepare Americans to see Canada as an enemy.

As Timothy Snyder says “Wars begin with words…When we see the truth of where this is all meant to go, we can prevent it: by calling out the big liars and telling the small truths.”

3. Regarding the reality that the democratic world must treat the US not as an ally to be consulted but as an adversary to be contained. I’ll let Andrew Coyne, columnist for the Globe & Mail, take this one over. Right after Trump won the presidency he wrote, “There is no sense in understating the depth of the disaster. This is a crisis like no other in our lifetimes. The government of the United States has been delivered into the hands of a gangster, whose sole purpose in running, besides staying out of jail, is to seek revenge on his enemies. The damage Donald Trump and his nihilist cronies can do – to America, but also to its democratic allies, and to the peace and security of the world – is incalculable. We are living in the time of Nero.” He finished the column off with this: “All my life I have been an admirer of the United States and its people. But I am frightened of it now, and I am even more frightened of them.”

He went on in February 14 with this: “The United States, under Mr. Trump, cannot be considered an idle bystander in the great twilight struggle between the democracies and the dictatorships, as it was in the 1930s. It is now on the side of the dictatorships…It is not just that the democratic world can no longer count on America. It is that America, under Mr. Trump, is no longer necessarily part of the democratic world: neither fully democratic in its own affairs, nor committed to the welfare of other democracies, but hostile to both. If the international order is to be preserved, then, it will have to be preserved, in part, from the United States. Certainly it will have to be rebuilt without it.”

4. Regarding the reality that Canada could go to war with the US; at the very least it has permanently changed our attitude to our neighbour. This is an astounding statement, but is supported by various sources. Timothy Snyder wrote last week that “war with Canada is what Trump seems to have in mind.” He highlighted Trump’s “strangely Putinist” fiction that Canada isn’t real – that we’re not economically viable, that most of us want to join the US, and that the border is artificial. The assertion that Canada isn’t real is the kind of lie, Snyder said, that “imperialists tell themselves before beginning doomed wars of aggression.” It’s preparation “not just for trade war but for war itself.”

As political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon wrote in the March 22 Globe & Mail, Canada needs to now follow the ancient Roman aphorism, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” The risk of Trump taking our land is higher if we pretend it doesn’t exist. Homer-Dixon suggests that emerging from Trump is a world governed by brute force and the will of the strongest.

It will take time, but if we choose to remain weak “Trump will steadily escalate his demands on Canada, tying them to progressively broader political and territorial grievances. He’ll also increasingly question our country’s basic legitimacy as a sovereign nation, as he’s already started to do. A flood of lies from his associates, cabinet members, and the MAGA-verse will paint us as, at best, an irresponsible neighbour that’s not protecting America’s northern flank, or, at worst, an outright security threat, because at any moment we can restrict access to the energy, potash, water and other critical resources the United States needs.”

Once we’re framed as an enemy, intelligence and military co-operation (for instance, under NORAD) will end. And at that point – with the US military’s senior ranks purged of resistance and Trump loyalists in place – demands for territorial concessions, explicitly backed by the threat of military force, will be a simple next step. They’ll likely start with something small – an adjustment to the border in the Great Lakes, for instance – as a test of our will. But they won’t end there.

5. Regarding the significantly negative impact Trump and the US has had on intelligence-sharing co-operation. How can a country being threatened with annexation be expected to co-operate on intelligence-sharing, as well as the proliferation of dangerous cyber tools and tackling terrorism? And it’s not just Canada.

As Ron Deibert, Founder and Director of Citizen Lab (and who spoke recently to a speaker’s club I belong to in Toronto), said in a briefing he delivered to the staff of the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on March 5, “Many of the US’s other allies [besides Canada] now see it as an agent of chaos and a source of unpredictable and extremely belligerent threats. As it alienates itself from all but a few like-minded dictators, US government actions will leave huge gaps in its ability to see threats emerging abroad before they materialize, effectively cutting off its ears and eyes on the ground.”

He also said “It’s apparent to almost everyone the world over that the United States is rapidly descending into authoritarianism.” You don’t share intelligence with this.

6. Regarding Trump’s future path being aligned with the far-right Project 2025. This is the blueprint for a conservative administration created by the Heritage Foundation, a Trump-aligned right-wing think tank. The strategy seems to be to seize power and dare both Congress and the courts to stop it. Russell Vought, a self-described Christian nationalist, wrote a key chapter in the document and was confirmed by the Senate to lead the Office of Budget Management, which administers the $6.75 trillion federal budget.

The document itself sets out four main policy aims: restore the family as the centrepiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation’s sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely. (Religion permeates the language, such as the US should “maintain a biblically based, social science-reinforced definition of marriage and family.”) It promotes the wholesale violation of norms and laws, consolidating enormous power in a president and the trampling on Congress’ constitutional role.

The big question will be how much will Trump be guided by its recommendations. So far, the answer appears to be quite a bit. If that’s the case, the recommendations are all now in the public realm and can be examined and preparations made for the future. (See Attachment #4: Project 2025 Summary; https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/)

7. Regarding Trump’s demonization of the press: He popularized the phrase “fake news” and branded journalists the “enemy of the people.” He has sought prior restraints against books critical of him, and attempted to weaken libel protections to make it easier to sue the press. And he does frequently sue news outlets. (He uses the legal system as a weapon, which in itself is a whole subject) His administration is investigating broadcasters. Trump and his followers falsely claim that news organizations have been bankrolled by the government.

A pitched legal battle is now unfolding between Trump and that paragon of fact-based journalism, the Associated Press, as he has banned them from the White House press pool for refusing to use his renamed Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. This non-profit news agency, founded in 1846, currently serves 150,000 media outlets in more than 100 countries and its AP Stylebook sets the standard for journalistic writing conventions. That the government can command what words journalists use is a serious threat to press freedom enshrined in the First Amendment. If Trump succeeds in banning the AP, there may be no limit on government control of journalists covering the White House – or any government official for that matter.

Bashing the press is a time-honoured tradition for presidents of both parties. But Trump has gone much further, attacking the very notion of an independent news media, one that will refute his distortions. He wants journalists to parrot his views and face consequences if they don’t.

8. Regarding Trump’s disdain for the judiciary, leading to an authoritarian vision of power and disrespect for the rule of law: Trump is a threat to the independence of the judiciary, which the country’s founders established, along with Congress, as a coequal branch of the American government. Congress writes laws, the judiciary interprets those laws, and the executive branch enforces them. As journalist David Shribman wrote, “This separation of powers is a product of 18th-century Enlightenment thought developed by the French political philosopher Montesquieu, who is also known for the tolerance of criticism of government officials and policies – a principle that has been challenged by the Trump administration.”

As Shribman says “Trump’s apparent disdain for the judiciary has been accompanied by his efforts to blunt the independence of Congress, where Republican lawmakers have surrendered their prerogatives to control the power of the purse and shape immigration policy, authorities delegated to them in the Constitution.” What is emerging is a theory of American governance known as the “unitary executive” theory. It holds that the president is the pre-eminent, and thus the sole governing, element of the executive branch, giving the White House the authority to fire members of agencies that, until recently, were regarded as insulated from political pressure.

As historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat said, “Trump is asserting the power of the executive in a way totally new for American history. It’s an authoritarian vision of power founded on disrespect for the rule of law. He’s marching through the authoritarian playbook at top speed.”

9. Regarding Trump’s male dominating attitude towards women: If there was ever a president who represented unfettered male domination, it’s Trump. An implicit promise of the 2024 Trump campaign was to restore patriarchy to America. Trump voters were overweighted male.

Trump was found liable for sexual abuse; he famously told “Access Hollywood” that if you’re a famous man “you can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy”. He asserted during the recent campaign that he’d “protect” women “whether the women like it or not”. And he was instrumental in ending abortion rights nationwide.

MAGA is the celebration of male grievances. It’s the cult of manhood. And when Trump (or MAGA people) are confronted with a man such as Zelenski in 2022 who demonstrated acts of courage, refusing to leave the country (“you will see my face not my back”), he just shames them.

I’ve said this in another blog, but why any self-respecting, independent female would vote for him (unless their anti-abortion stance overrides all other values) is beyond comprehension.

10. Regarding Trump’s possible mental incompetence: James Fallows is an American writer and veteran professional journalist. He is a former national correspondent for The Atlantic. I say that to lay credence to the following observation he has made in his Breaking the News website after Trump’s speech to Congress.

He is suggesting that Trump’s mental acuity is slipping. Fallows noted that Trump’s vocabulary has shrunk markedly since his first term and he appears to be falling back on “more primitive and predictable” phrases. It appears to be that he can no longer find big words or new expressions. So he says the same ones over and over and over again.

Also, presidents usually speak in different registers because they are aware of the different roles they play. As Fallows says “But now, for Trump, all forms of discourse have collapsed into one form. To him an inaugural address is a MAGA rally is a State of the Union is a press conference is an Oval Office rant—whether to reporters, or at a visiting foreign president…If Trump now sounds the same in all roles, I think it is because he thinks they’re all one role. That role is being the center of everything—of adulation, of fear, of power, of profit.”

The Atlantic magazine, way back in their October 22, 2020 endorsement for Biden wrote “Compelling evidence suggests that his [Trump’s] countless sins and defects are rooted in mental instability, pathological narcissism, and profound moral and cognitive impairment.” More currently (late March), even those closest to the president…have privately indicated that they’re unsure exactly what the boss will do…“No one knows what the fuck is going on,” said one White House ally close to Trump’s inner circle.

There are many areas that Trump is pronouncing on that seem strange, and that the media search for sensible explanations: Canada as the 51st state, buying Greenland, the Gaza as a beautiful real estate deal. They certainly include his dogged determination to impose tariffs despite the pain they are inflicting on Americans. Is it possible that perhaps one of the reasons his pronouncements are strange is that Trump is losing it?

A moment of reflection and balance, as a reminder…
A) The US contribution since World War II.
We’re so focussed on Trump and the US of today. But I wanted to add some historical context, for it’s useful to step back and make note of American contributions to global security since WWII:
It helped secure victory in WWII (after entering it belatedly)
Through the Marshall Plan it helped ensure peace by spending billions of dollars on aid to help European countries (West Germany included) to get back on their feet (which the Soviets didn’t expect)
It established a permanent presence in Europe that would come in handy during the Cold War
It was also a founder of NATO in 1949, an alliance so dependent on America that, under the alliance’s rules, a country that wants to pull out has to do so by informing the US government of its intention; the US had become the democratic world’s defensive shield
It was part of the creation of an international monetary system at Bretton Woods, and set up the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to support it. The US dollar became the reserve currency of the major economies around the world
It was a key figure behind the push to reduce tariffs that began with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947, continued with the World Trade Organization in 1995, and led, in its way, to the North American Free Trade Agreement that Trump renegotiated in his previous term in office

B) There are valid considerations for a recalibration by the US with its postwar allies.
The US dollar is overvalued, consequently their exports are more expensive and imports cheaper, thus leading to manufacturing decline
There has been a steady decline in US economic power. In 1960, the US share of global GDP was 40%; currently, it is 26%. (GDP, however, continues to climb, with fading manufacturing sectors being replaced by fast-growing service industries.)
The US defence obligations are being stretched (due to China’s military rise and Russia’s Ukraine invasion); there are nearly 230,000 US overseas deployments of military personnel stationed in foreign countries with almost three quarters of them active-duty troops
Because of the US power, the EU and Canada have not needed to invest in national defence (the Globe & Mail, in their March 22 editorial, have labelled this our “peace dividend” which is a good way to put it)
According to the World Trade Organization, the US has been the lowest tariffing country in the world, with an average rate of 3% (vs the EU at around 5%, Canada 6% and China 10%)

C) Canadians must be above it all.
A third point to be made is an important caveat. While many Americans support Trump, many do not. So we should avoid categorizing the whole with the attitudes of a portion. I place in that category the need to refrain from booing the American national anthem. While it might feel good, it’s childish. Canadians should be able to demonstrate we can be above it all.

Then to the question of Trump’s outcomes, even despite his style and personality:
Some Americans will say “that’s all just his characteristic personality and style. I ignore that and look for action and believe that he will deliver. I only care about outcomes for my country.”

Well yes, much of the above has got to do with personality but I have the following answers to the question of his actions leading to sought after outcomes.

The following are serious negative outcomes of Trump’s current actions:

1. Decimation of values: In my worldview, values override everything, and Trump does not respect or reflect my values. So, what do I mean by “values”? I would include the following as a reasonable starter kit of values: truth and honesty; giving your word and standing by it; empathy and tolerance; trust and believability; civility, even sincerity. And a choice to not unnecessarily wield power. What Trump is doing is making the US a predatory power (like Russia and China). Thus the US is now seen as both aggressively incoherent and dangerous. This is a huge consequence of bad values.

Think about the first one for just a few seconds. When dealing with Trump one ALWAYS has to consider what is false. Before you even react with either an emotional or logical answer, you have to determine what really is the truth. Also, the stunning reality for an habitual lier, is that he probably isn’t really sure himself. The Nazi Joseph Goebbel’s law of propaganda was “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”, but it’s not clear whether Trump even follows this as a strategy.

David Pfrimmer, a Wilfred Laurier professor for public ethics has suggested political virtues we should expect of our leaders should start with prudence and wisdom, followed by a commitment to ensuring justice, fairness and protection for the rights of all people. This, in turn, would be followed by courage and fortitude to stand up for what is right, even in the face of adversity. He has also suggested two of which Trump seems to be particularly void and that is the ability for self-control, temperance if you like, followed by civility and playing well with others. He suggests that “civility does not ignore political differences – rather, it understands how these differences can push politicians to be better public servants.”

One final shot across the bow on values, and it’s a general one that I’ve felt for many years. I have some legitimacy in making this observation having lived in the United States for over four years on two separate occasions. Also I have spent a great deal of time conducting business in the country. So I would say that many Americans are very, perhaps obsessively, focused on money, be it how much you make or the things you possess that indicate that you have it – cars, houses, clothes or whatever. I dislike generalizations, but sometimes they just have you nodding.

2. Democracy is breaking down in the US. As Stephen Levitsky and Lucan Way said in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs, “Democracy is in greater peril today than at any time in modern U.S. history.”

“The country’s vaunted constitutional checks are failing. Trump violated the cardinal rule of democracy when he attempted to overturn the results of an election and block a peaceful transfer of power. Yet neither Congress nor the judiciary held him accountable, and the Republican Party—coup attempt notwithstanding—renominated him for president. Trump ran an openly authoritarian campaign in 2024, pledging to prosecute his rivals, punish critical media, and deploy the army to repress protest. He won, and thanks to an extraordinary Supreme Court decision, he will enjoy broad presidential immunity during his second term.”

3. A massive political party divide is wrenching America apart. The country is more politically divided now than it has been in the past twenty years. Not only is there less collaboration and mutual understanding between Democrats and Republicans, but members of both political parties increasingly view each other in an extremely negative way.

The Republican Party now embraces the idea that America’s institutions – from the federal bureaucracy and public schools to the media and private universities – have been corrupted by left-wing ideologies (this includes Americans who believe the government has a role to play in regulating business, providing a basic social safety net, promoting infrastructure, and protecting civil rights). It now seems that the Republican Party has a greater will and power to exploit constitutional and legal ambiguities for authoritarian ends.

62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats had a very unfavourable view of the other party in 2022, which is a higher percentage than it was just five years before. According to Pew Research, increasing numbers of people now describe those in another political party as close-minded, dishonest, unintelligent, and even immoral. In 2019, 45% of Democrats said they would be unhappy if their child married a Republican and 35% of Republicans said they would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat (these numbers were 4% in 1960).

I have a personal anecdote that’s quite revealing regarding this point. When waiting at a bar for a table for dinner last fall in Hilton Head, South Carolina, I struck up a conversation with the chap beside me. He was a lawyer, well spoken, and from Pennsylvania. We got into politics, and he was a Democrat. He related to me that over the past two to three years his circle of friends has gradually narrowed to only Democrats. He stated that he now has NO contact with former Republican friends. Political considerations has truly divided the country.

4. Business and media are beginning to change their behaviour in a pro-Trump fashion. Is it fear, opportunism, or belief alignment?
CEOs who had once criticized Trump’s authoritarian behaviour are now rushing to praise him, and give him money. Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Toyota each gave $1 million to fund Trump’s inauguration, more than double their previous inaugural donations. In early January, Meta announced it was abandoning its fact-checking operations – thanks, Mark Zuckerberg.

Nearly all major US media outlets (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, The Washington Post – which is controlled by Jeff Bezos, whose largest company, Amazon, competes for major federal contracts) are owned and operated by larger parent corporations. Bezos, and the owner of The Los Angeles Times, Patrick Soon-Shiong, overruled their papers’ planned endorsements of Kamala Harris ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

5. Trump’s record is poor in terms of outcomes. In terms of promise, he’ll promise anything, but that’s not an outcome. He claims tariffs would shift the burden of funding the US government to foreign countries. When economists reiterated that tariffs are paid by US consumers and would drive up prices and slow growth, he insists they were wrong.

Regarding his current actions, Washington Post economic reporter Heather Long wrote on March 6 “Trump’s whipsaw actions have put businesses and consumers on edge.” If they stop spending at the same time that the government slashes jobs and spending, a downward spiral could lead to a recession. “Trump is inciting an economic storm.” The current state of public attitude and stock market performance are indicators to keep watching.

6. Trump is working against the adage of “strength in collaboration”, i.e. that states working together can achieve more than when in opposition, that the idea of the sum of the parts exceeds the total. Trump’s vision of what he wants for the US will in the medium and certainly long term do irreparable harm to the country and its citizens.

I back this up with an excellent interview I listened to recently of the Timothy Snyder I referred to previously. As Snyder points out what the US is doing is draining power from the system. By this he means that there has never been a time and a set of states with common values so powerful in the history of the world – the US, UK, the EU (NATO), Canada, Japan, South Korea, etc. etc.

But the bullying and gangsterism of “America First” will reverse America’s polarity. As the United States once attracted, so it will now repel – and those who for so long sought to draw closer to the United States will now pull away. New trading relationships will be crafted. New alliances forged. And America will be diminished.

Trump is in the process of reducing America to a loner country, one looking on from the sidelines while the rest of the world continues along the arc of history put in place after the Second World War. He has now isolated the United States from the rest of the liberal democratic world, his allies. He is breaking up that powerful structure; he’s creating a situation where the US on its own (plus all these other states) are less powerful today than say a month ago.

As Andrew Coyne said recently in a Globe & Mail op ed, “Trade is, in the end, not so much about competition as it is about cooperation, each country contributing what it can to a global enterprise in wealth creation. That is a concept that is plainly alien to The President. As Mr. Trump does not believe in co-operating with others, he cannot imagine how others might co-operate with him.” He calls this “making America great again,” but the opposite is occurring.

Certainly, if Trump continues, Canada needs new alliances, now that our “best friend and neighbour” has turned mean. I’ll get to this.

7. The Elon Musk factor: Inserting the richest man in the world as his right hand executer of his crusade to reduce government spending, through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established by an executive order, has attracted much deserved controversy. One particular area highlights an important harbinger of the future – Trump’s messing with the “third rail” of US politics, Social Security. Just recently Musk called Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, and has promised to cut the Social Security Administration’s workforce by 12%.

There is a case to be made (for some it is reasonable; for others, it’s an absurd argument) that down the road Trump (or a surrogate) is contemplating ways to continue as president in 2028 but not counting on going to the polls. Thus gutting America’s favourite entitlement program may not be a worry?

8. The RFK Jr. factor: Of all of Trump’s crazy leadership choices, the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vocal anti-vaccine person, to head the Department of Health and Human Services is the nuttiest. Just take the current situation regarding the outbreak of measles. The probability a child dying of measles is zero if they get immunized. RFK Jr. says vaccination is important, but also a matter of parental choice. But vaccination left to personal choice isn’t sound public-health policy. The prevention of measles depends on herd immunity, which requires at least 90% of individuals in a given group to be vaccinated in order to prevent viral spread.

9. Ukraine’s future: Trump’s despicable and flawed treatment of Ukraine will lead to a bad result for Ukraine and the free world. Trump, in his eagerness for great power co-operation with Russia (which he wrongly thinks will help him confront China), may yet abandon Ukraine to a grim fate.

Trump is trying to impose a “peace deal” that will give a large chunk of Ukraine to Russia. He doesn’t even understand the rules that were established in 1945 (Article 2.4 of the UN Charter where frontiers were frozen and allowing no more border changes by force). But as journalist Gwynne Dyer wrote recently, most of the European members of NATO both know and care, because their continent was levelled by the last great war. They now know that the US is their enemy (they won’t say so publicly) and they must create a new alliance without the US to stop Trump’s “peace”.

Regarding the infamous Oval Office incident on Feb 28, this was behaviour beyond contempt: Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance verbally pummelled Zelensky, and Trump asked Zelensky to leave, noting to the camera, “This is going to be great television – I will say that.” It was obvious that Trump and Vance took sadistic delight in abusing him. As one Ukrainian drone operator told a newspaper, “I saw attempts to humiliate and mock the president of a country that has been in blood for three years. This is immoral behaviour.”

The Kyiv Independent aptly described the significance: “Let this sink in: The president of a battered Ukraine, an ally of the U.S., became the first world leader in history to be kicked out of the White House. Not a dictator, not a disgraced politician — the president of Ukraine, a country suffering from the worst invasion in the 21st century. The country that the U.S. administration swore to bring peace to. After the meeting, Trump claimed that Zelensky didn’t want peace. That’s a dangerous lie.”

Ukraine faces the cutoff in vital American military assistance, leaving Ukraine isolated and Russia emboldened. Trump has also neutered NATO and Europe’s defence.

Trump’s explosive behaviour toward Zelensky was not justified. He foolishly promised to end the war within 24 hours during his election campaign, then revised that to 100 days. To meet his own deadline, he’s pushing the process. He has granted Putin concessions he shouldn’t have given up, such as rejecting NATO membership for Ukraine, and tried to pressure Ukraine to sign a ceasefire deal without guarantees that Putin will use to replenish his arsenal and army.

Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine has been even more inept and inexplicable than the appeasement of Hitler at Munich. “Trump has been far weaker at curbing Putin’s aggression,” writes Aryeh Neier in the NYR Online last week, “than Chamberlain was at curbing Hitler’s.”

10. There is the potential in the US for another Civil War: There is one thing to have an economic failure but the risk of a real Civil War is looming. The opening sentence in a book titled “The Next Civil War” starts with “The United States is coming to an end.” (The book was written by Stephen Marche, a respected journalist, and was published in 2022.) He describes a pitting of neighbour against neighbour. The fuel being the deep chasm between two visions of America, the one multiethnic, the other White supremacist. This chasm is full of antipathy and even outright venom. “Hatred drives politics in the United States more than any other consideration,” Marche writes, and in the America of today, the middle ground has disappeared.

The US is descending into the kind of sectarian conflict usually found in poor countries with histories of violence, not the world’s most enduring democracy and largest economy. As Marche notes, Trump was right when he said, “This country was seriously divided before I got here.” It’s not just Trump’s fault, but he has certainly done his best to sow hatred and division.

Part two of this proposition is the ultimate risk that the strategies Trump is following may lead to the actual failure of the nation. History points out that what happens to all powers is they eventually get pulled down. While they may be the strongest individual power, the coalition of powers that oppose them and their obnoxious behaviours forces the other powers to combine against the bigger power and tear it down. This thought is being increasingly contemplated.

11. Trump’s actions have increased the possibility of nuclear proliferation in the world. Yes, I did say that, as utterly disturbing as it sounds. This statement has to do with how middle powers will see the idea of having nuclear weapons can protect them from the big powers. Professor Snyder pointed out (in another interview) that Trump’s approach will encourage nuclear proliferation, because, for example if Ukraine is forced to surrender, every medium sized country will say we need nuclear capability as a deterrent. Conventional armaments won’t do it against the big boys.

Canada, is in this category. It sits between Russia to its north and the newly belligerent US to the south, with one tenth of the population. Canada has suddenly become vulnerable (from being one of the safest protected countries in the world). It’s quite a shock.

History has a way of being blunt. It says that no national boundary is secure and immutable. In a March 7 Globe & Mail op ed by Queen’s professor of history, Daniel Woolf, describes Germany’s relationship with Austria in 1938 as well as the fact that the UK has only existed since 1707. Woollf argues that we should not assume that Trump’s musings are “outside the realm of possibility. We can take nothing for granted. To do otherwise is to court disaster, in defiance of historical precedent.”

So what can Canada do?
Attitude
# 1, Have resolve and remain united; this includes Alberta: We will need to dig deep into our resources and summon up resolve. That means first of all remaining as united a country as possible and not succumbing to the foe we now see south of the border. The world Atlas I loved poring over when I was young doesn’t match the country boundaries of today’s world. So there’s reason to take nothing for granted.
We should make it clear that swallowing portions of our country (or even pinching some parts of it surreptitiously like water) will be like swallowing a porcupine. NO portion is acceptable.
The Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, needs to stop the divisive rhetoric and partisan politics. The only impending national unity crisis is the one being created by her. (She should start with canning the idea of replacing the Canada Pension Plan with her idea for an Alberta-based plan.)

# 2, Forcefulness: For Trump, weakness is a provocation. Canada needs to be determined, and united – forcefully. Across the country. English, French, First Nations, gender, individually – we have to find ways of coping. Perhaps, as David Frum said in a Hub interview, “Give him a shock back; it’s not funny; it’s a declaration of malice and hostility.”
Canadians are finding almost pleasure in looking through our grocery stores for “made in Canada” labels. Sales of Teslas are experiencing a major decline in global sales, especially in Europe and Canada. Ontario elected a premier whose prime reason to call an early election was that he was the man to deal strongly with Trump.

# 3, Redefine/reinforce Canadian “nationalism” and values: We need to define an anchoring vision of Canada as a single political community, accompanied by a strong portfolio of federal policies that reinforce Canada’s identity. I suggest that we base this around the solid core already provided to us, starting with our values which include the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
I include some wonderful words that the Chief Justice of Canada Bev McLachlin used back in 2004 that sums up this issue in an extraordinary fashion. As she said “We are less inclined to see issues in terms of irreconcilable positions, more inclined to question and accommodate. We are deeply internationalist. At the same time, our situation has induced zealous concern that we protect our own distinctive culture and way of being. Canada, the small boy on the block, suffers the small boy’s apprehension. Not the apprehension of being knocked off the block; our countries have a long history of peaceful coexistence. Rather, the fear of economic and cultural absorption, of being swamped by the larger, louder American forces to the south.” The rest of her words can be found in Attachment #5; see: https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/

#4, Business agility and reinvention: workforces will need to have the skills; cost structures will change because of tariffs, presenting continuous reinvention; AI, cybersecurity, supply chain nimbleness will dominate; continuous change will be the norm.

External, to the US and World
Retaliate: Canada needs to retaliate dollar-for-dollar. It is a fixed threat that doesn’t depend on Trump’s next announcement. It’s not about what is targeted or what is being demanded. It is only about how much is targeted, an amount set by Trump himself.

Canada needs to respond in kind with tariffs, but not just on manufacturing, but on technology, services and intellectual property. These lie at the heart of the US economy. We need to threaten to suspend intellectual property protections, such as patents and copyrights. We need to cancel US investments, and look inside our country or to other nations.

Coordinate with allies; create new ones: Countries are weaker when they act alone, so co-operation should be sought with like-minded allies who value rules-based trade (such as the EU, the UK, Mexico, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc).

Become a free-trade hub with the rest of the world: As the Globe & Mail said recently, while Trump is building walls around the US, Canada “must get started on building bridges, everywhere else.”

Reduce our dependence on the US for critical infrastructure: Canada’s internet traffic is routed through the US. The same for oil coming from Western Canada (heading south from Manitoba and reentering in Ontario makes us vulnerable). Some practical examples follow.

Cancel US contracts 1, Starlink should be cancelled: We should reconsider how dependent we are on US technology. There are some made-in-Canada alternatives that can be accelerated. If the US can blackmail Ukraine by threatening to cut off access to SpaceX’s Starlink communications satellites, we’re vulnerable. Elon Musk’s Starlink provides satellite telecommunications services in remote regions. More than half of Canada’s provincial and territorial governments buy critical internet and emergency communications services from Starlink. Earlier this month, Musk reposted someone’s message on X, his social media platform, that suggest he cut off Starlink access to protest the government of British Columbia’s decision to exclude Tesla from provincial energy rebates.
The investment by the feds and Quebec in creating the Lightspeed Low Earth Orbit (LEO) broadband satellite constellation is a good option; it can compete with Musk.

Cancel US contracts 2, The F-35 fighter jet contract with the US should be cancelled. (This was to replace Canada’s ancient fleet of CF-18s which must be done quickly.) Canada will never have full control of the heavily computerized planes anyway. The US controls the “source code”. Also some maintenance of the plane along with flight crew education has to be done in the US. Parts are in the US so over time the planes would be unflyable if ever a Canada/US discord occurs. (We may be forced to fulfill the order for the first 16 planes that were expected by 2026.)
By the way, there is an excellent alternative to the F-35 – the Swedish made Saab Gripen E which met all Canada’s technical requirements. It’s cheaper, can take off on short Arctic runways. Also Saab has committed to building the planes in Canada.
We should also consider cancelling the purchase of P-8A Poseidons ($10 billion for up to 16 of them.) The P-8A will replace Canada’s current maritime patrol aircraft, the CP-140 Aurora. The CP-140 Aurora fleet was originally procured in 1980 and is currently scheduled to retire from service in 2030. At that point, it will have been in service for almost 50 years.

Re-examine the necessity of fighter jets altogether: Pursue the option of going, as James Snell said recently in the Globe & Mail, “all-in on homegrown drone forces, rather than persisting with the now rather old-hat idea of manned air power.” He backed this up with two main arguments. First, the battlefield in Ukraine is dominated by drones with the majority of combatant casualties being caused by drones. Secondly, current air dominance is only available with sophisticated and debilitatingly expensive jets that are difficult to produce with long lead times.

Cancel US contracts 3, The BWRX-300 nuclear reactors should be cancelled: We need to reverse the federal intention to support construction of these US designed reactors at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station in Clarington, Ont. Canada has also committed a similar amount ($56-million) to SaskPower to fund predevelopment work for new reactors in Saskatchewan. The BWRX-300 is being designed by Wilmington, NC-based GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy. The big problem is that they require enriched uranium fuels, which Canada cannot produce domestically. The only other source (besides developing the capability locally) is from Russia.

Elect the Liberal party led by Mark Carney on April 28: a man and party that has international experience and no populist rage. As the Globe & Mail March 27 editorial said “thanks to Mr. Trump, voters will want to be reassured that he (Poilievre) can handle himself on the world stage, a place where he has never set foot…His at times mean-spirited politics and lack of international experience” overshadow his economic policies, most of which are sound. A recent biography on Poilievre claims he is “the nastiest leader of a major party in this county’s history.” As the author Mark Bourrie says in his just released Poilievre biography, “Ripper”, Poilievre “represents the dark side of our nature. He’s an angry teenager in the body of a grown man.”

Poilievre frequently criticizes Canadian “elites,” positioning himself as a champion of the “common people” and focusing on “freedom” and “taking back control.” I don’t want his American brand of aggrieved negativity to creep into the Canadian political discourse.

Further, his declaration that he would use the “notwithstanding clause”  in order to avoid being bound by a Supreme Court ruling on criminal sentencing, is alarming and shows an extreme lack of judgement in understanding the importance of, and messing with, Section 33 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Carney will face criticism for some old economic ideas. Businessman Jim Basillie took a hard whack at him recently for having ossified economic ideas that will perpetuate the status quo and not reflect the key factors that drive domestic innovation. In particular the concept of intellectual property. He wants a leader that will design strategies that transform Canadian industry from producers of low value, raw materials into producers of higher margin products and services. In particular, understanding the need to invest money where companies have freedom-to-operate (FTO), as without the ownership of intellectual property and control of data companies cannot yield positive returns. I assume Carney is smart enough to bring on board people with the necessary skill to navigate these issues (maybe even Basillie himself!)

Carney also may find the political environment difficult, but I also assume he’s nimble enough to adapt to its cut and thrust.
There is another important factor with regards to Carney: during his time as governor of the Bank of England, he made a lot of friends. In times like now, Canada will need them.

Internal to Canada
Support business: This is a NOW action – learning how to be more productive in our business skills. We talk about this a lot, but serious flaws exist – some of it is related to how we tax business (too high – see later), some related to productivity inhibitors imposed by regulatory bodies or legislation. There are lots of studies on how to do it; besides ironically we can look south of the border and perhaps pick up a thing or two.

Fix our broken capital markets: We rely too much on foreign sources of capital. According to a couple of lawyers at law firm Goodmans LLP, the lack of healthy domestic public markets hinders access to capital for Canadian businesses. This makes it difficult for them to improve productivity and remain competitive, and force Canadian businesses to seek capital elsewhere.

The federal government needs to encourage businesses to list and stay listed on Canadian stock exchanges, and it needs to encourage Canadians to invest in them. There are all sorts of fiscal and tax policies to do this. One suggested option was the income trust which encouraged mature Canadian businesses to access capital and grow but attracted non-Canadian businesses to list on the TSX. (In 2006 the practice of income trust conversion ended).

Translate public research investment in intellectual capital into private sector innovation. This will require us to recognize our weaknesses: low innovation, stagnant productivity, declining competitiveness. The Business Council of Canada has some data on this. Our real GDP has declined in 8 of the last 9 quarters (down to levels last seen in 2017). Productivity growth (a cornerstone of economic health) has averaged just .8% annually over the past two decades, compared to 2% in the US. In 2008, intellectual property products investment per available Canadian worker was about $2,000 compared with about $4,000 in the US. In 2023 Canada went to $3,000 per worker but the US went to $10,000.

Canada’s current science and technology ecosystem is not delivering innovation at the pace of its global peers. Examples are many: AI and high tech can be better used in mining and agriculture. Public money can be used to attract private investment. (See fixing “our broken capital markets.”)

Buy Canada – a citizen manifesto: Certainly just avoid buying American, in general, whether it’s travel or purchases. Many are already making these day to day decisions. (I just did the groceries and managed to purchase nothing sourced from the US.) My California wine drinking days have passed. We’re beginning to research alternatives. (One idea: switch from Visa or Mastercard, both US based, to a Canadian alternative -the 100% owned Interac debit and e-transfers.)

Think more East/West economic links. Downplay (even though it is less costly) North/South focus. High speed train development has begun; the progress needs to be accelerated aggressively. Better integrate the various transportation systems (train, plane, truck, car). Pipelines currently have little business support so this will need economic encouragement, plus being environmentally cautious. (See next point re oil and gas.)

Become self-sufficient in oil, natural gas, and electricity: Support simultaneous construction of the Energy East oil pipeline, and the Northern Gateway pipeline, as well as a gas pipeline to the Maritimes to facilitate liquified natural gas (LNG) plans on the East Coast. (At the same time, Bill C-69 – the Impact Assessment Act – should be canned, as it has slowed down development of natural resources. The export of Canadian LNG could actually lead to a reduction in global GHG emissions, which is one of the intents of Bill C-69.) Crude and gas to the world that still needs it should be a reality. Non US markets must be targeted. Diversifying our global customer base is essential (see next).

Diversify sales of Western Canadian crude. Early data indicates that a large amount of the new export capacity as a result of the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) project in May 2024 is finding its way not to California’s refineries, but rather to China. This marks a noteworthy shift from Canada’s almost complete reliance on the United States as its predominant oil customer – a shift all the more timely given Trump’s actions.

The pipeline expansion has already tripled the amount of crude oil that is exported from the West coast – from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 bpd – at a significantly greater price per barrel. The trend is clear: China now regularly accounts for 50% or more of all crude exported from the TMX pipeline. This is a transformative moment for Canada’s crude oil industry, increasing the amount of oil that can make it to tidewater, thus unlocking significant new export opportunities.

Better interprovincial planning regarding the delivery of electricity: Interprovincial barriers need to be dismantled and regional planning embraced. It’s also not a federal government thing; it is regional coordination done through such mechanisms as the already established Canada Electricity Advisory Council. The US (except Texas) and Australia do it. But here in Canada we have one electricity planner in each separate province.

The advantage of larger regional planning areas, says the president of the Ivey Foundation Bruce Lourie, lies in their resource diversity. He says that “different regions possess varying sources of generation, from hydropower to wind, solar and thermal energy. When connected through robust transmission networks, the integrated system optimizes generation across a broader geographic footprint.” Which leads to a coast-to-coast interconnected electrical transmission power grid to protect against regional blackouts

Adapt/fortify our home-grown vehicle manufacturing, plus seek out new markets. As of April 2, Trump has announced tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. This undercuts the US-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement that he signed in his first term. But more importantly it will drive up costs for businesses and consumers. (Ontario plants run by Ford, GM, Stelantis, Honda and Toyota made a total of 1.6 million passenger vehicles, most of which were exported to the US.) So Canada needs to tighten our skills (worker training, plus plant automation) to boost our ability to be competitive and self reliant as well as seek out new markets. If it doesn’t, it won’t have automotive manufacturing down the road.

Reduce interprovincial barriers: A lot has been said recently about inconsistent regulations and business environments across the 10 provinces and 3 territories, as well as the constraints that exist (one of them being the barrier of Canada’s vast geography). But just get it done. Put the premiers in a room and tell them to come out when they agree on these things.

Reassess federal/provincial framework to enhance future roles: This is now the opportunity to have a serious examination to realign which level of government does what and how they pay for it. Dodging this will dodge the opportunity to find common ground to move forward this entire project we call Canada. This needs leadership at both levels of government, not the usual default of oppositional politics.

Selected privatization, e.g. airports: Tony Fell, former chair of RBC Capital Markets, recently made the suggestion that Canada’s three major airports and the Port of Vancouver be privatized. Major pension plans and international investors could play a prominent role. Our airports apparently are among the most expensive and inefficient in the world.

Simplify securities regulations; create a new national securities commission: Tony Fell also suggested replacing the existing securities structure in Canada (“It’s complex, dysfunctional, and expensive – an annoyance for both domestic and international investors”.) A new national securities commission is required.

Support/enhance social programs: We need to be proud of our healthy balance of social programs and business smarts. However the health care system has major flaws. While it’s conceptually bang on, reforms are needed (see next). Adequate pensions (like the Canada Pension Plan) and safety nets remain important but are in tension and face serious issues. Old Age Security accounts for 20% of Ottawa’s spending and it’s growing faster than most other expenditures combined, thus a plan to face this must be developed. (One oft repeated suggestion is scaling back OAS for financially secure retirees with household incomes above $100,000.)

Improve health care for now; develop health care for the future: We need to do two things. First deliver it better: this entails such things as solve the family physician crisis, as day by day it is getting worse; hospital wait times are too long; health care systems need overhauling (health care productivity has stalled and expensive electronic medical record modernizations have not met expectations.) And touch the “private” button by retaining current health care principles but permitting private sector alternatives, such as what prevails in Quebec.

Secondly, take this opportunity to become a world leader in future innovations, such as healthy living options (a “prevention” focus, for example; how about paying health care providers to keep their population healthy rather than paying for illness care); curative possibilities (integrate skills of corporations, hospitals, pharmacies, and medical personnel); and long term aging options. This should include drugs, vaccinations, diet, vitamins, and physical/social activities. Now is the time to go beyond the traditional delivery of health care and design new possibilities.

Safeguard the well-being of younger generations by establishing a minister for intergenerational fairness. This would focus on housing; child care; education; climate change.

Military – move to a wartime footing in all respects (economically, socially, politically, militarily):
Double our military investment to 3% of GDP, then target 4% in 10 years: It’s currently 1.37%. NATO is expected to lift their floor to 3% at its summit this summer. Expenditures need to be done wisely, focusing on the latest innovations (cyber warfare, drones, hypersonic missiles, improvised explosive devices). Ottawa has underfunded and under equipped the Canadian Armed Forces in the belief the US would always have its back. The nation’s ability to procure weapons is likewise a laughable web of parochial regional interests and political interference that is always years behind the military’s real needs.

Seek increased military autonomy from the US plus expand relations with other more reliable allies. Canada must spend the coming decades developing its own systems (along with partnerships). In accelerating its own domestic defence industry, Canada should partner with others on major projects, particularly those that would provide backups.

The binational North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) may no longer be sacrosanct south of the border. (NORAD is the United States’ only binational command – it’s currently a close US/Canada relationship.) Interoperability has been a principal drive of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and those of the US. Interchangeability between Canadian and America has always been a priority in the past.

Note: some binational approach must continue at some level in executing the defence of North America. Much of the equipment and capabilities Canada has is American-made or designed to be interoperable with the US. Jettisoning them would leave Canada without a viable defence.

While avoiding deepening our US dependence for critical future needs, Canada must act quickly in selecting and purchasing these needs. The message is to avoid US equipment purchases for future needs, and these are many: submarines, surface ships, tanks, early warning aircraft, drones. However we have to act quickly. Two Canadian professors writing in the Globe & Mail suggested that parliament should empower cabinet to temporarily dispense with cumbersome layers of procurement red tape. This needs to be done fast as European military is gearing up quickly as well.

Introduce a national civil defence corps: The federal government should require all able-bodied young people between the ages of 16 to 21 to spend at least one year in community service with modest compensation, or alternatively, they could elect to serve a year in military training. (This was a recent suggestion by both Thomas Homer-Dixon and Tony Fell.)

Over-invest in the Arctic: We have historically underinvested. This is both a military issue (ships with Arctic capability for example) as well as a transportation and future business issue. Think big with the Grays Bay development, a project that would see an Arctic deepwater port and road being built that would connect mineral resources to international shipping routes as well as offering the Navy another northern beachhead. The massive project on Canada’s central Arctic coast in the middle of the Northwest Passage could open up crucial mineral resources.

Our Russian neighbour to the north is looking aggressively at the opportunities, plus so is China. And of course, the US.

Canada needs to go nuclear: I have left this for near the end but it may necessarily be the first. Canada will have to take charge of our own security. Canada needs to set in motion a plan to become a nuclear country. We are seriously vulnerable to the elephant below us; we can’t bulk up militarily fast enough to even consider defending ourselves. We are vulnerable to encroachments on our resources, particularly water, electricity, oil and gas, potash, and specialized minerals. We need to level the playing field.

And it can’t be done by other countries. (For example Britain’s nuclear warheads are designed and built in partnership with Lockheed Martin in the US. The Trident missiles that carry them are leased from the US and serviced in Georgia. There is no independent British nuclear deterrent – only a shared one reliant on American support.) This is an area in which Canada has excellent skills. This recommendation has finally made it’s way to the national news, in the form of an op ed piece in the March 22 Globe & Mail by professor Jean-Francois Bélanger. It will need to be done surreptitiously and quickly as the USA will not be happy, potentially triggering counter threats, or worse.

Finance
Increase public expenditures as payment for some of these plans; this means borrowing and likely higher taxes: The prosperity (and independence) Canada would get from the investments will be worth it. We need to think and act big or roll over and become a 51st state. We need to reduce US leverage.

To those who disagree, I point to what has just happened in Germany when Friedrich Merz, the chancellor-in-waiting (and leader of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance that placed first in last months election) just struck a deal to scrap their infamous debt brake and open the spending spigots. This will include a deficit-financed fund for infrastructure worth 500-billion euros (12% of GDP). Germany’s stock index rose 3.3% and the euro rose against the dollar on the prospect of a stronger German economy.

Use Canada’s credit worthiness to borrow for major, national projects. Canada’s national debt is low by international standards (less than 50% of GDP; 75% if provincial debt included). It’s the second lowest of all the G7 countries; The US’s is much worse. Canada is perceived as having greater stability thus resulting low-risk premium. It’s time to commence imaginative nation building long-term investments mentioned previously such as high speed trains, pipelines to the coast, and military capability, including northern development.

Re-establish Canada Savings Bonds. With the “buy Canada” fever now established, the demand would be huge, providing a low-cost, stable source of government funding that does not rely on the fickleness of foreign investors.

Taxes, 1: Stop promising unrealistic tax cuts. Both Carney and Poilievre have recently done so. Carney has proposed cutting the lowest marginal rate of income tax from 15 to 14%; Poilievre then said he would take it to 12.75%. Respectively this would cost $6-billion and $14-billion annually at a time when our deficit is expected to come in at $50-billion, and that’s without understanding what a trade war and recession would bring. We’ve got to stop promising both higher spending and low taxes and be realistic.

Taxes, 2: Rejig taxes to jolt the Canadian economy: make a modest shift from income taxes to consumption taxes. Match corporate taxes and capital gains with those in the US (or even a tad lower). This would result in deferring the tax in most capital gains – if the proceeds are reinvested in Canada (also assuming real estate as a qualifying asset for reinvestment was excluded.) Raise GST to 7% or higher.

My prediction for Trump – as a wrap up:
I’m going to predict that some day in the (near?) future when he’s lost power, or has been noticeably weakened, that people will turn from him, abandon him. The human measure for most people is how you treat others. On this measure, Trump fails miserably. His behaviour is so un-human, so crass, so unlikeable and unsocial that humans with an iota of sensitivity will shun him (particularly when he can’t wield his economic power over them).

There is a large category of people out there who feel distain, but fear Trump. Historian Anne Applebaum in her “Open Letters” March 10 blog titled “”Life in an Occupied Country” quoted (carefully removing identifying information) a letter from a senior university person who is well credentialed that went like this: “I too worry about my mortgage and paying for college tuition and what happens when the market is flooded with out of work people with advanced degrees and the stock market plummets. Yet here I too hide my identity as I criticize others, for which I carry a sense of deep shame. I behave this way at least in part because I’m the primary earner in my household and I don’t want to put my family or colleagues at greater risk.”

There are many such out there who will surface when the opening comes. It will be akin to the precipitous decline of senator Joe McCarthy in 1954 when he was confronted in a congressional hearing about his accusations that Communists had infiltrated the US Army. They then saw him for what he was – a vicious, lying bully – and most turned against him. His popularity plummeted, reporters ignored him, and the Senate “condemned” him.

This will include a perhaps surprising number of Republicans.

Trump’s record of lies is embedded in the archives of his public time, the history books of presidential behaviour. They will be fact checked; they will find him wanting on so many counts. His pronouncements will be his own evidence, his own worst critic.

While the Trump conversation constantly dominates dialogue, I am trying to watch it in a detached frame of mind – like a cartoon dancing across the screen of my life. I’m trying to “keep calm and carry on”.

My own actions are minimal (some minor purchasing adjustments), and for me – trying to make sense of it all by writing about it. Perhaps naively I have the thought that perhaps my words, in some small way, will have a positive influence on the opinions, attitudes, and ultimately values in those who read them.

So to end this…
With a bit of faint humour, I suggest Canada should talk about making an offer to Trump. Let’s trade him some oil for Alaska. It would fill in a logical geographic aberration for Canada.

And an imaginative real estate deal, that involves some water resources (I hear the Columbia River is drying up), in exchange for Hawaii. It would serve as an excellent spot to replace Florida or California for Canadians looking for winter warmth.

Thanks Premier Trump.

Note: for a more complete list of sources used, see: https://powellponderings.com/the-usa-and-trump-2025-attachments-sources/