Weaker, Less Respected and Alone
Attachment #1: My Other Trump/US Blogs
I have written four other blogs on him:
- The first on May 12, 2020 “Trump and The United States: Observations From North of the Border”; this can be found at https://powellponderings.com/trump-and-the-united-states-observations-from-north-of-the-border/.
- The second on Nov 11, 2020 “Trumpism as a Cult: Post Script to Trump and the U.S. Election” can be found at https://powellponderings.com/trumpism-as-a-cult-post-script-to-trump-and-the-u-s-election/.
- The third on Nov 23, 2020, Trump as a “Floater” can be found at: https://powellponderings.com/trump-as-a-floater/.
- The fourth on June 7, 2024, is entitled “Six Random Trumpisms”; it can be found at: https://powellponderings.com/six-random-trumpisms/.
Attachment #2: The lies in Trump’s March 4th speech (a selection of six)
- Regarding inheriting an economic catastrophe. Trump did not inherit a disastrous economy by any measure. The unemployment rate ticked down to a low 4% in January, the month he took office, while the economy expanded a healthy 2.8% in 2024. Inflation-adjusted incomes have grown steadily since mid-2023. And inflation, while still elevated at 3% in January, is down from its 2022 peak.
- Tariffs: Trump said “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening. And it will happen rather quickly.” Trump is banking on the idea that taxing imports is the road to riches for the United States. However most economists say Trump’s tariffs would hurt the country, as they are tax increases that could raise the costs of goods in ways that could also harm economic growth. Trump suggests that the impact on inflation would be minimal. (A few days ago when the Yale University Budget Lab looked at the tariffs that Trump imposed on Canada, Mexico and China, it found that inflation would increase a full percentage point, growth would fall by half a percentage point and the average household would lose about $1,600 in disposable income.)
- Social Security money being paid to many people over age 100. (He went on and on about this.) There is no evidence. The databases may list those people, but they are not getting paid benefits.
- Immigration: Trump said that “over the past four years, 21 million people poured into the United States. Many of them were murderers, human traffickers, gang members.” This is a frequent Trump line, however there is no evidence other countries are sending their criminals or people with mental illness across the border. The 21 million people he cites regularly, is highly inflated. US Customs and Border Protection reported more than 10.8 million arrests for illegal crossings from Mexico from January 2021 through December 2024. Besides, that’s arrests, not people. Many get arrested more than once.
- EV sales: Trump said “We ended the last administration’s insane electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto workers and companies from economic destruction.” But there was no federal mandate to force the purchase of EVs. Biden had set up a non-binding goal that EVs make up half of new cars sold by 2030.
- Pledge to eliminate the US$1.9-trillion federal deficit before his term ends in 2029: As a presidential candidate in 2016, Trump insisted that he could eliminate the federal debt within 8 years; it has almost doubled since then. Trump has also vowed to cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits and reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% for domestic manufacturers. “Tax cuts for everybody” is his call. Historian Niall Ferguson recently noted that, throughout history, countries that spend more on debt service than on defence eventually ceased to be great powers. In 2024 the US spent more on interest payments on the federal debt than on defence. And interest costs as a share of GDP are projected to be twice that of defence spending by 2035. This will really constrain American power.
Attachment #3: Trump’s Inadequate Negotiating Skills
Trump seems to be convinced that his real estate experience provides him skills of international complex negotiations. However it has been suggested by professional negotiators that Trump’s skill are destructive. He follows a winner/loser mentality, or as it’s called “distributive bargaining”, which happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and both sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. So if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called “integrative bargaining” where the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributed bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. There isn’t another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Tump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, because he saw only steel and aluminum – he sees every negotiation as distributive. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it. From a professional negotiation point of view, he’s an amateur.
(Source: Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.)
Attachment #4: Project 2025 Summary
Project 2025 is the blueprint for a conservative administration created by the Heritage Foundation, a Trump-aligned right-wing think tank. Trump appears to be following its direction closely. The document itself sets out four main policy aims: restore the family as the centrepiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation’s sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely.
Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control – a controversial idea known as “unitary executive theory”. In practice, that would streamline decision-making, allowing the president to directly implement policies in a number of areas.
The proposals also call for eliminating job protections for thousands of government employees, who could then be replaced by political appointees.
The document labels the FBI a “bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization”. It calls for drastic overhauls of the agency and several others, as well as the complete elimination of the Department of Education.
Shortly after being sworn in, Trump moved to eliminate job protections for career civil servants, and freeze federal spending. Through Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, the White House has moved to chop billions in federal spending, although the details and legal status of the cuts are hazy at best. DOGE is not an official government department, but rather an outside team advising Trump with broad authority from the president. It’s clear however that Trump intends to take a sledgehammer to the federal government as it currently stands – a goal broadly in line with Project 2025 suggestions.
Regarding abortion, Project 2025 proposes withdrawing the abortion pill mifepristone from the market. Trump also issued an executive order designed to stop federal funds being used for abortion, a move that was outlined in detail in the Project 2025 document.
Re immigration, increased funding for a wall on the US-Mexico border – one of Trump’s signature proposals in 2016 – is proposed in the document.
Re energy, Project 2025 proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy, and calls for the next president to “stop the war on oil and natural gas” – ideas that Trump has enthusiastically taken up.
Re education and DEI, Trump moved to end diversity, equity and inclusion programs and decreed that government departments would recognize only two genders. The document also calls for greater school choice – essentially subsidizing religious and private schools with public funds – which was also the subject of an early Trump executive order.
Attachment #5: Chief Justice of Canada Speech 2004
The Right Honourable Bev McLachlin, Chief Justice of Canada ended her speech to the Centre for the Study of Canada in 2004 with the following insights:
“The… difference in Canadian history which has affected our notion of individual rights is our position as a middle power, poised just to the north of the most powerful nation on earth. As the smaller and weaker of the two countries which occupy the North American continent, we tend to define ourselves not only positively but negatively in terms of what we are not. We are comfortable with ambiguity. We are less inclined to see issues in terms of irreconcilable positions, more inclined to question and accommodate.
We are deeply internationalist. At the same time, our situation has induced zealous concern that we protect our own distinctive culture and way of being. Canada, the small boy on the block, suffers the small boy’s apprehension. Not the apprehension of being knocked off the block; our countries have a long history of peaceful coexistence. Rather, the fear of economic and cultural absorption, of being swamped by the larger, louder American forces to the south.
All this has affected our conception of rights. Our spiritual situation somewhere between the United States to the south and the European tradition across the Atlantic is reflected in our Charter, a melange of European and American notions.”
Sources
As always, I touch on many who write and pronounce out there in the real world. For brevity when writing this blog I have occasionally left their affiliations out, or minimized them. But they need to be spelled out so here they are:
- Applebaum, Anne: an American journalist and historian; writes a daily blog “Open Letters
- Balsillie, Jim: a Canadian businessman and philanthropist; the former chair and co-chief executive officer of the Canadian technology company Research In Motion
- Bélanger, Jean-Francois: assistant professor of Military Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College
- Ben-Ghiat, Ruth: New York University historian and author of the book Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present
- Coyne, Andrew: a columnist for The Globe and Mail. A graduate of the London School of Economics. Worked previously for The National Post, Maclean’s and Southam News, contributing as well other publications, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, National Review, and The Walrus. He is also a weekly panelist on CBC’s The National.
- Deibert, Ron: Founder and Director of Citizen Lab, Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy; author Chasing Shadows
- Dyer, Gwynne: a British-Canadian military historian, author, professor, journalist, broadcaster, and retired naval officer
- Fallows, James: an American writer and veteran professional journalist, and a former national correspondent for The Atlantic. He has a website “Breaking the News”
- Fell, Tony: he is the former chairman of the board of trustees of the University Health Network and a former chairman of RBC Capital Markets
- Ferguson, Sir Niall: a British-American historian who is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University
- Frum, David: a Canadian-American political commentator and a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He is a senior editor at The Atlantic as well as an MSNBC contributor
- Honig, David: attorney; an adjunct professor at Indiana University Robert H. McKinney School of Law, teaching about the art of negotiations. He also serves as a Registered Civil Mediator in the state of Indiana.
- Jones, Peter: a professor at the University of Ottawa Lagassé, Philippe: an associate professor at Carleton University and the Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs
- Levitsky, Steven: is David Rockefeller Professor of Latin American Studies and Professor of Government at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow for Democracy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
- Lourie, Dr. Bruce: an author, policy expert, social entrepreneur, and award-winning global sustainability leader. He is the president of the Ivey Foundation, and a scholar-in-residence at McGill’s Trottier Institute for Sustainability in Engineering and Design
- Homer-Dixon, Thomas: he is an adjunct professor with the School of Environment and Sustainability and executive director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University and professor emeritus at the University of Waterloo; he is a prolific author
- Keillor, Garrison: an American author, singer, humorist, voice actor, and radio personality
- Long, Heather: Washington Post economic reporter
- Marche, Stephen: novelist and journalist who has written for the Atlantic, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and many other outlets
- McLachlin, the Right Honourable Beverley, P.C., C.C., CStJ; served as Chief Justice of Canada from 2000 to 2017; Companion of the Order of Canada
- Neier, Aryeh: an American human rights activist who co-founded and was former Executive Director of Human Rights Watch; President Emeritus of the Open Society Foundations. He is the author of The International Human Rights Movement: A History; contributor to New York Review (NYR) Online
- Pfrimmer, David: is professor emeritus for public ethics at Martin Luther University College at Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo
- Shribman, David: American journalist and author
- Snell, James: former senior advisor for special initiatives at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy; author of the forthcoming book The Fall of the Assad’s
- Snyder, Timothy: professor of history at Yale, author and visiting professor at the University of Toronto; writes a blog “Thinking About”
- Way, Lucan: is Distinguished Professor of Democracy in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada
- Woolf, Daniel: professor of history, Queen’s University